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Only 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots added after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which election day went kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously backed Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might go over two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots left to report at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he does because then no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any area. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. However no, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that each urban center in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities exist.