Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
